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Key Take-Aways: Growth, Shifts, and Opportunities

The DHL Trade Growth Atlas also measures changes in countries’and regions’ shares of world trade. Among the key take-aways:

• The Covid-19 pandemic has not been the major setback for globaltrade that many anticipated: International trade in goods hassurged as high as 10% above pre-pandemic levels, even in the faceof significant supply bottlenecks that constrained furthergrowth.

• Prospects for future trade growth remain surprisingly positive:Due to the war in Ukraine, trade growth forecasts have beendowngraded, but they still call for trade to grow slightly fasterin 2022 and 2023 than it did over the preceding decade.

• E-commerce sales boomed during the pandemic and forecasts pointto strong cross-border e-commerce growth continuing.

• New poles of trade growth are identified in Southeast and SouthAsia, and trade growth is expected to accelerate dramatically inSub-Saharan Africa.

• Trade growth is spread across a wider variety of countries:China accounted for a quarter of trade growth in recent years andis predicted to continue to have the largest growth, but its shareis likely to fall by half, to 13 percent.

• Viet Nam, India, and the Philippines stand out on both speed andscale of projected trade growth through 2026. All three havepotential to benefit from efforts by many companies to diversifyChina-centric production and sourcing strategies.

• While emerging economies increased their shares of world tradefrom 24 to 40 percent between 2000 and 2012, with half of theincrease driven by China alone, these shares have barely changedover the past decade.

• However, emerging economies continue to race forward on measuresof connectivity, innovation, and leading companies. They arebecoming more important exporters of sophisticated manufacturedproducts, and increasingly compete not only on low costs, but alsoon innovation and quality.

Understanding Global Trade and its Opportunities

The DHL Trade Growth Atlas examines global trade growth trends,geographic shifts, the mix of products traded, and broader changesin the business environment. It analyzes trade in goods worldwide,by region, for advanced vs. emerging economies, and across 173countries. The report features concise one-page summaries for eachof these countries. The countries covered comprise more than 99% ofworld trade, GDP, and population.

“We have sought to distill the most important data on the stateand trajectory of global trade and to bring the data to life inmaps, charts, and other visual content. The results show how thereare still large trade growth opportunities in both advanced andemerging economies and in regions around the world. The tradelandscape is shifting and presenting new challenges, but thisreport strongly rebuts predictions of a major retreat from globaltrade,” says Steven Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director ofthe DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for theFuture of Management.

The DHL Trade Growth Atlas complements the established DHLGlobal Connectedness Index series. While the DHL Trade Growth Atlasprovides a special deep dive on global trade in goods, the DHLGlobal Connectedness Index, published regularly since 2011,analyzes the broader phenomenon of globalization – based on tradein goods and services, as well as worldwide flows of capital,people, and information. Both reports help pinpoint promisingbusiness opportunities, and support fact-based debates about tradeand globalization.